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Factors that determine future climate change, including scenarios for future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, are outlined in Section 2.1.. Descriptions of the methods and tools used to make projections of climate, impacts and risks, and their development since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), are … … Ideally, these scenarios span the range of possible future emissions pathways, so that they can be used as a basis for exploring a realistic set of future projections of climate change. These scenarios span the range of plausible radiative forcing scenarios, and are called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Projections also include previous IPCC scenarios (IPCC Scenarios 1992a (IS92a), Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1, TAR Appendix II) and some alternative near-term scenarios for … RCPs are concentration pathways used in the IPCC AR5. 'SRES' Scenarios and 'RCP' Pathways. The pathways describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on the volume of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in the years to … For the latter half of the 21st century, SRES A2 has a similar trajectory to that of RCP8.5, with both reaching … How does SRES A2 compare with the RCP future projections? A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectory adopted by the IPCC. Scientists attempt to create scenarios of future human activity that represent plausible future greenhouse emissions pathways.

… View Comments (7) Close Comments. Expert analysis directly to your inbox. The IPCC reports that “ Scenarios without additional efforts to constrain emissions (‘baseline scenarios’) lead to pathways ranging between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.” There are two main sources for these contrasting views about RCP 8.5: disagreements over the scenario’s assumptions about the drivers of anthropogenic emissions and uncertainties about carbon/warming feedback loops. The origins and controversies of the RCP8.5 global warming scenario . Edit. Although the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is based primarily on results from the CMIP5 modelling using RCPs, the report also uses results from the SRES CMIP3 modelling and therefore identifies similar scenarios from each set. Four pathways were used for climate modeling and research for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014.

Topic 2 assesses projections of future climate change and the resulting risks and impacts.

Comments. Projections from 2010 to 2100 focus on the RCP scenarios (Moss et al., 2010; Lamarque et al., 2010; 2011; Meinshausen et al., 2011a; van Vuuren et al., 2011; see also Chapters 1, 6, 8, 11, 12 and 13). THE BRIEF. Print. Four RCP scenarios used in the IPCC fifth assessment report Nine ... Explainer: The high-emissions ‘RCP8.5’ global warming scenario . of developing scenarios. What are RCPs? In previous IPCC assessments, the most widely used and … Now available: a guide to the IPCC's new RCP emissions pathways The new IPCC RCPs describe four scenarios how the planet might change in the future, for climate research and modeling The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has introduced a new way . They are prescribed pathways for greenhouse gas and .

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