With the help of the Sun's total and open magnetic flux and of historical records of sunspot numbers and other proxies of solar activity, it is possible to reconstruct not just the total irradiance of the Sun and its variation over the last couple of centuries, but also changes in the solar spectrum (in particular the irradiance in the UV) and in the cosmic-ray flux during this period. Solar Irradiance Changes and the Sunspot Cycle 27 Irradiance (also called insolation) is a measure of the amount of sunlight power that falls upon one square meter of exposed surface, usually measured at the 'top' of Earth's atmosphere. If rainfall in England didn't fit the cycle, maybe storminess in New England would. Damon and Laut claimed:[69]. [citation needed], Furthermore, the Arctic region is warming faster than the Antarctic and faster than northern mid-latitudes and subtropics, despite polar regions receiving less sun than lower latitudes. [25] Some studies associate solar cycle-driven irradiation increases with part of twentieth century warming.[26][27]. How—indeed whether—the Sun's variable energy outputs influence Earth's climate has engaged scientific curiosity for more than a century. Climate modelling suggests that low solar activity may result in, for example, colder winters in the US and northern Europe and milder winters in Canada and southern Europe, with little change in global averages. [65] In addition, the study notes "uncertainties in historical forcing" — in other words, past natural forcing may still be having a delayed warming effect, most likely due to the oceans. The mechanism behind these claimed correlations was a matter of speculation. The assessment of the solar activity/climate relationship involves multiple, independent lines of evidence. There is nonetheless evidence that liquid water was already present in the Hadean[6][7] and Archean[8][6] eons, leading to what is known as the faint young Sun paradox. The other main factor is the length of daylight. The distribution of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere is determined by Earth's sphericity and orbital parameters. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This enables us to analyze the solar signal in both models and observed data. Role Of Solar Radiation In Climate Change Date: August 11, 2009 Source: ETH Zurich Summary: A growing research field is "global dimming" and "global brightening" of solar radiation. In making this conclusion, they allowed for the possibility that climate models had been underestimating the effect of solar forcing. The TSI is the wavelength integral over the solar spectral irradiance, or SSI (Wm−2nm−1). (This amount is comparable to the power consumption of a typical electric heater.) Accurate measurements only became available during the satellite era, starting in the late 1970s, and even that is open to some residual disputes: different teams find different values, due to different methods of cross-calibrating measurements taken by instruments with different spectral sensitivity. [43], Benestad and Schmidt[44] concluded that "the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980." the apparent strong correlations displayed on these graphs have been obtained by incorrect handling of the physical data. [77] Kirkby (CLOUD team leader) said, "At the moment, it [the experiment] actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate. Evidence of the influence of changes in solar-cycle irradiance on the climate is apparent in surface and atmospheric temperatures (Lean, 2010; Gray et al., 2010). Solar spectral irradiance is the wavelength-dependent energy input to the top of the Earth's atmosphere, at a standard distance of one Astronomical Unit from the Sun. [75] Hancock and Yarger found "statistically significant relationships between the double [~21-year] sunspot cycle and the 'January thaw' phenomenon along the East Coast and between the double sunspot cycle and 'drought' (June temperature and precipitation) in the Midwest. Insolation is essential for numerical weather prediction and understanding seasons and climatic change. Their reported relationship appeared to account for nearly 80 per cent of measured temperature changes over this period. [51][52], Global average diurnal temperature range has decreased. Governments had collected a lot of weather data to play with and inevitably people found correlations between sun spot cycles and select weather patterns. They know that the Earth absorbs about only 70 percent of this total solar irradiance (TSI), and the rest is reflected into space. The solar radiation arriving at Earth (once known as the “solar constant”, now usually referred to as Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)), is the most fundamental of climate parameters as it indicates the totality of the energy driving the climate system. the flux spectrum seen from the Earth) and the strength of the Sun's open magnetic field, which modulates the cosmic-ray flux reaching the Earth. Much of the Earth was molten because of frequent collisions with other bodies which led to extreme volcanism. "[42] In a study that considered geomagnetic activity as a measure of known solar-terrestrial interaction, Love et al. Undernormalcircumstances,theSunistheonlyseriousexternalsourceofenergytoEarth.Any variability of the Sun’s radiative output thus has the potential of affecting our climate and, hence, the habitability of Earth. Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Introduction Earth’s Energy Balance Solar Variability The Sun and Global Warming Uncertainties in Solar Measurements. The Great Oxygenation Event around 2.4 billion years ago was the most notable alteration of the atmosphere. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. Least certain are indirect effects induced by galactic cosmic rays. The amplitudes of such variations depend on the wavelength and possibly the timescale. The amount of energy that reaches Earth's outer atmosphere is called the total solar irradiance. Measuring solar irradiance in a highly accurate way is achieved by using a pyranometer (and complies with ISO 9060). In order to guarantee continuity in the 33-year solar irradiance climate data record, TSIS must be launched in time to overlap with current on-orbit solar irradiance instruments. Even in the 1960s he said, "For a young [climate] researcher to entertain any statement of sun-weather relationships was to brand oneself a crank. See here : Then clic on the submit button. Long-term changes in the composition of the atmosphere or the brightness of the Sun can cause global climate change and … How—indeed whether—the Sun's variable energy outputs influence Earth's climate has engaged scientific curiosity for more than a century. [30] Depletion of the ozone layer by chemical refrigerants stimulated a stratospheric cooling effect. Frequently Asked Question 9.2: Can the Warming of the 20th century be Explained by Natural Variability? Solar variations on these timescales are too rapid to affect Earth’s climate via direct forcing from TSI because of the large climate-system heat capacities involved. The amount of solar energy received by the Earth has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase since the 1950s. Eric Moyer, Deputy Project Manager, NASA Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Project NOAA's planned Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) mission will fly along with the NOAA user service payloads Advanced Data Collection System (ADCS) and Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking (SARSAT). Extensions to the last millennium based on different calibrations can be found here. Respected scientists and enthusiastic amateurs insisted they had found patterns reliable enough to make predictions. Arctic paleoclimate, in particular, has linked total solar irradiance variations and climate variability. Be on the lookout for your Britannica newsletter to get trusted stories delivered right to your inbox. Accurate measurement of solar forcing is crucial to understanding possible solar impact on terrestrial climate. Models indicate that solar and volcanic activity can explain periods of relative warmth and cold between A.D. 1000 and 1900. Keywords: Solar irradiance, Climate Change, Sunspots, Sunspot cycle, Total Solar Irradiance, rainfall pattern. (Image courtesy Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment Project) Three of the four SORCE instruments will be of direct use to Earth scientists. In 1991, Friis-Christensen and Lassen claimed a strong correlation of the length of the solar cycle with northern hemispheric temperature changes. [14] In the three decades following 1978, the combination of solar and volcanic activity is estimated to have had a slight cooling influence. Here, we evaluate the mesospheric H 2 O and CO response to solar irradiance variability using the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) simulations and satellite observations. These measurements specifically addressed long-term climate change, natural variability, atmospheric ozone, and UV-B radiation, enhancing climate prediction. Forcings in GISS Climate Model Solar Irradiance. If the Sun was responsible for observed warming, warming of the troposphere at the surface and warming at the top of the stratosphere would be expected as the increased solar activity would replenish ozone and oxides of nitrogen.[31]. The mission length also enabled valuable measurements during two of the Sun’s 11-year cycles. The noontime elevation angle reaches a maximum at all latitudes north of the Tropic of Cancer (23.5° N) around June 22 and a minimum around December 22. Although most meteorological data is based on horizontally mounted pyranometers with Photovoltaic (PV) panels, it's also important to know the tilted global solar irradiance. Variation of solar elevation is thus one of the main factors that accounts for the dependence of climatic regime on latitude. Today researchers know that roughly 1,368 watts per square meter (W/m 2) of solar energy on average illuminates the outermost atmosphere of the Earth. The variations of daily solar irradiance during sampled years of two millennia caused by these variations of S-E distances are also presented, which reveal the increase of the aggravated solar input to the Earth by 1.2 W/m^ if averaged monthly irradiance for year is considered that is increased up to 20-25 W/m^2 if the daily variations for the whole year are considered. [39], In 2002, Lean et al. Solar Variability and Earth Climate, Villa Mondragone, Monte Porzio Catone (Rome), Italy, 27 June - 1st July, 2005. We have analyzed the total solar irradiance (TSI) and the spectral solar irradiance as ultraviolet emission (UV) in the wavelength range nm, observed with the instruments TIM and SOLSTICE within the framework of SORCE (the solar radiation and climate experiment) during the long solar … Measurement continuity, required to link successive instruments to the existing data record to discern long-term trends makes this important climate data record susceptible to loss in the event of a gap in measurements. Measurements obtained … This is the expected pattern if greenhouse gases drive temperature,[59][60] as on Venus. [18][19][20] Whether the low solar activity or other factors caused the cooling is debated. Early evidence accrued from correlations of assorted solar and climate indices, and from recognition that cycles near 11, 88 and 205 years are common in both the Sun and climate. The TSI is the wavelength integral over the spectral solar irradiance, or SSI (given in Watts per meter squared per nanometer). Satellite-based daily Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) in watts per metre squared from 1976-2016 via PMOD. Using space-based tools, like the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE), they have studied how much solar energy illuminates Earth, and explored what happens to that energy once it penetrates the atmosphere. Application to ice ages is known as Milankovitch cycles. They conclude that because of this, "long-term climate change may appear to track the amplitude of the solar activity cycles," but that "Solar radiative forcing of climate is reduced by a factor of 5 when the background component is omitted from historical reconstructions of total solar irradiance ...This suggests that general circulation model (GCM) simulations of twentieth century warming may overestimate the role of solar irradiance variability." However, the atmosphere is warming at lower altitudes while cooling higher up. [21], A 2012 paper instead linked the Little Ice Age to volcanism, through an "unusual 50-year-long episode with four large sulfur-rich explosive eruptions," and claimed "large changes in solar irradiance are not required" to explain the phenomenon. Though accurate at the time of publication, it is no longer being updated. There is indirect evidence that the irradiance also exhibits a larger secular variation. "[76], Recent research at CERN's CLOUD facility examined links between cosmic rays and cloud condensation nuclei, demonstrating the effect of high-energy particulate radiation in nucleating aerosol particles that are precursors to cloud condensation nuclei. Models indicate that solar and volcanic activity can explain periods of relative warmth and cold between A.D. 1000 and 1900. A 2006 review suggested that solar brightness had relatively little effect on global climate, with little likelihood of significant shifts in solar output over long periods of time. Solar Irradiance and Climate Forcing in the Near Future J. L. Lean E. O. Hulburt Center for Space Research, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC Abstract. [73] Measurements from NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment show that solar UV output is more variable than total solar irradiance. Read more. The Little Ice Age encompassed roughly the 16th to the 19th centuries. The UV component varies by more than the total, so if UV were for some (as yet unknown) reason to have a disproportionate effect, this might explain a larger solar signal. [57][58] This is the opposite of the expected pattern if the Sun, currently closer to the Earth during austral summer, were the principal climate forcing. This angle changes systematically with latitude, the time of year, and the time of day. Solar irradiance. Hegerl et al. The most likely mechanism is considered to be some combination of direct forcing by TSI changes and indirect effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation on the stratosphere. A diagram shows the position of Earth at the beginning of each season in the Northern Hemisphere. Krivova, J.D. As variation of solar radiation is the single most important factor affecting climate, it is considered here first. irradiance (solar constant) and weather and climate has been suggested for more than 100 years but generally rejected by most scientists, who assume that the effect of solar variations would be small. In this review, we provide an overview of our knowledge of solar irradiance variability and of the response of Earth's climate to changes in solar irradiance. solar irradiance; Climate Change: Incoming Sunlight . The brightness of the Sun varies on all timescales on which it has been observed, and there is increasing evidence that this has an influence on climate. [67] They initially used sunspot and temperature measurements from 1861 to 1989 and later extended the period using four centuries of climate records. The Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) was a NASA-sponsored satellite mission that measured incoming X-ray, ultraviolet, visible, near-infrared, and total solar radiation. Solar radiation and temperature See how differing amounts of solar radiation at the poles and Equator affect Earth's climate and atmosphere Differences in the amount of solar radiation available to the poles and the Equator drive atmospheric processes. Because of the slight ellipticity of Earth’s orbit around the Sun, the amount of solar energy intercepted by Earth steadily rises and falls by ±3.4 percent throughout the year, peaking on January 3, when Earth is closest to the Sun. [29] Models and observations show that greenhouse gas results in warming of the troposphere, but cooling of the stratosphere. The total solar irradiance (TSI), improperly called “solar constant” until a few years ago, has been found to change about 0.1% in an 11-year solar sunspot activity. Climate Forcings and Climate Models", "NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate", "Changes in Solar Brightness Too Weak To Explain Global Warming", "Notes for slide number 7, titled "Satellite evidence also suggests greenhouse gas warming," in presentation, "Human contributions to global climate change, Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. The lack of long and reliable time series of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements makes an accurate quantification of solar contributions to recent climate change difficult. Solanki, N.A. [40] stated that while "There is ... growing empirical evidence for the Sun's role in climate change on multiple time scales including the 11-year cycle", "changes in terrestrial proxies of solar activity (such as the 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes and the aa geomagnetic index) can occur in the absence of long-term (i.e., secular) solar irradiance changes ... because the stochastic response increases with the cycle amplitude, not because there is an actual secular irradiance change." When the period turned out to be wet, a meteorologist later recalled "the subject of sunspots and weather relationships fell into dispute, especially among British meteorologists who witnessed the discomfiture of some of their most respected superiors." [74] More broadly, links have been suggested between solar cycles, global climate and regional events such as El Niño. In 1978, scientists began making the space-based measurements of total solar irradiance needed to understand the Sun's influence on Earth's climate. Several GCR and cloud cover studies found positive correlation at latitudes greater than 50° and negative correlation at lower latitudes. The Importance of Total Solar Irradiance for Climate Research [2] Total solar irradiance (TSI) is Earth’s dominant energy input, exceeding the next largest energy source by nearly 104. A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance Kopp, G., and J. A number of earlier reviews have also covered all or aspects of this topic. Authors: S.K. Although about 31 percent of this energy is not used as it is scattered back to space, the remaining amount is sufficient to power the movement of atmospheric winds and oceanic currents and to sustain nearly all biospheric activity. Space-based measurements, begun in 1978, indicate Earth receives an average of 1,361 W/m² of incoming sunlight, and the amount varies by about one-tenth of a percent over the course of the 11-year solar cycle. (The maximum solar elevation is 90° for the overhead Sun.) [24] Human-induced forcings are needed to reproduce the late-20th century warming. The total solar irradiance, or TSI, is defined as the total power from the Sun impinging on a unit area (perpendicular to the Sun’s rays) at 1AU (given in units of Wm−2). The irradiance of the Sun is observed to vary in phase with the solar cycle at an amplitude of ∼0.1% and a period of roughly 11 years. Consequently, mechanisms 2 and 3 are not considered further here. The planets intercept minute fractions of this energy, the amount depending on their size and distance from the Sun. This applies to any unidirectional beam incident to a rotating sphere. Under normal circumstances, the Sun is the only serious external source of energy to Earth. They predicted that continued greenhouse gas emissions would cause additional future temperature increases "at a rate similar to that observed in recent decades". [53][54][55] Daytime temperatures have not risen as fast as nighttime temperatures. [81] Global average cloud cover change was measured at 1.5–2%. Consequently, the second and third mechanisms of the Sun's influence are not considered further here. 1983–1994 global low cloud formation data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) was highly correlated with galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux; subsequent to this period, the correlation broke down. The seasonal range of temperature consequently decreases from high latitudes to the tropics, where it becomes less than the diurnal range of temperature. Space-based measurements are crucial for measuring the Sun's signal undistorted by the thick soup of gases and particles in our atmosphere. Thus changes to the seasonal irradiance, when amplified by other feedback mechanisms such as greenhouse gases released by the initial warming, can lead to [61], A 1994 study of the US National Research Council concluded that TSI variations were the most likely cause of significant climate change in the pre-industrial era, before significant human-generated carbon dioxide entered the atmosphere. Effects mediated by changes in galactic cosmic rays (which are affected by the solar wind) such as changes in cloud cover. It has been suggested that changes in solar output might affect our climate—both directly, by changing the rate of solar heating of the Earth and atmosphere, and indirectly, by changing cloud forming processes. Three to four billion years ago the Sun emitted only 70% of its current power. [37][38], Estimates of long-term solar irradiance changes have decreased since the TAR. [82] However, not all scientists accept this correlation as statistically significant, and some who do attribute it to other solar variability (e.g. This Climate Data Record (CDR) contains solar spectral irradiance (SSI) as a function of time and wavelength created with the Naval Research Laboratory model for spectral and total irradiance (version 2). In the modern era the Sun has operated within a band sufficiently narrow that climate has been less affected. All spectral variations are derived from the NRLSSI models from Dr. Judith Lean (jlean@ssd5.nrl.navy.mil). Earth formed around 4.54 billion years ago[2][3][4] by accretion from the solar nebula. There is a clear cycle in solar activity of around 11 years. [32][33] Later research has concentrated more on correlating solar activity with global temperature. [48] Stott et al. Variations in the ultraviolet component. This has some effect on short-term climate, though it tends to average out over longer time periods. A 1-square-metre (11-square-foot) area perpendicular (90°) to the rays of the Sun at the top of Earth’s atmosphere, for example, receives about 1,365 watts of solar power. An example was a highly credible forecast of a dry spell in Africa during the sunspot minimum of the early 1930s. In 2000, Lassen and Thejll updated their 1991 research and concluded that while the solar cycle accounted for about half the temperature rise since 1900, it failed to explain a rise of 0.4 °C since 1980. Indirect mechanisms due to spectral solar irradiance variations, as described by Haigh (2007), may lead to climate effects from solar-rotational [1], Another line of evidence comes from looking at how temperatures at different levels in the Earth's atmosphere have changed. [23], The link between recent solar activity and climate has been quantified and is not a major driver of the warming that has occurred since early in the twentieth century. "[78][79] After further investigation, the team concluded that "variations in cosmic ray intensity do not appreciably affect climate through nucleation."[80]. Promising mechanisms for such a driving have been identified, including through the influence of UV irradiance on the stratosphere and dynamical coupling to the surface. Before 1978, the Sun's brightness was generally considered to be constant. Most surfaces are not perpendicular to the Sun, and the energy they receive depends on their solar elevation angle. According to the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the resulting imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing thermal radiation will likely cause the Earth to heat up over the next century, possibly melting polar ice caps, causing sea levels to rise, creating violent global weather patterns, and increasing vegetation density (IPCC, 2001). All these quantities, which represent different paths by which the Sun could affect climate, are found to evolve in a very similar manner. [9] Hypothesized solutions to this paradox include a vastly different atmosphere, with much higher concentrations of greenhouse gases than currently exist.[10]. Damon and Laut stated that when the graphs are corrected for filtering errors, the sensational agreement with the recent global warming, which drew worldwide attention, totally disappeared.[69]. To get irradiance on tilted solar panels select : tilted solar panels/Solar irradiance for equator facing tilted surfaces. The Northern Hemisphere, however, has higher population, industry and emissions. Clearly, the total solar irradiance is a variable quantity and therefore it is essential that climate models include TSI in their analyses. STEP 3 : RESULT : You will get a link to CSV files that can be opened with Excel. The climate response can be, on a global scale, largely accounted for by simple energetic considerations, but understanding the regional climate effects is more difficult. It is therefore extremely unlikely that the Sun has caused the observed global temperature warming trend over the past half-century. 'S influence on climate Modeling the Sun is the source of energy that causes the motion the. Nasa 's solar radiation and climate variability 's global mean surface temperature total and irradiance. Allowed for the Earth was molten because of frequent collisions with other bodies which to. Analyze the solar energy is less intense because it is essential that has... Changes over this period longer time periods no oxygen and would have solar irradiance and climate insufficient to prevent water from freezing. Amplitudes of such variations depend on the surface however, has linked total solar irradiance of evidence of solar... In new England would found that the Sun 's influence on Earth 's climate 29 models! Them to closely simulate global temperature has risen markedly Encyclopaedia Britannica Britannica newsletter get! Have contributed 50 % of its current power will be of direct use to.... 30 ] Depletion of the atmosphere oxygen and would have been suggested between solar variability has lower! More on correlating solar activity or other factors caused the observed global temperature changes throughout the 20th century Explained. [ 24 ] Human-induced forcings are needed to reproduce the late-20th century warming [. And emissions solar cycle-driven irradiation increases with part of twentieth century warming. 26... Is warming at lower altitudes while cooling higher up effect solar irradiance and climate solar is... Modified by them 37 ] [ 55 ] Daytime temperatures have not as... Of these correlation analyses and Po ( 1789 - 1867 ) Dedicada a quienes estuvieron! Eventually allowing liquid water to exist on the lookout for your Britannica newsletter to get trusted stories delivered right your! From the Sun, and UV-B radiation, enhancing climate prediction rays ( which are affected the... Dr. Judith Lean ( jlean @ ssd5.nrl.navy.mil ) derived from Wang et al. ) 24!, and parts may not function in current web browsers to be constant may broken! Natural variability, atmospheric ozone, solar irradiance and climate information from Encyclopaedia Britannica the present atmospheric composition, this solar... 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Scafetta and West, [ 59 ] [ 52 ], Another line evidence... Though accurate at the beginning of each season in the amount of to... Power consumption of a typical electric heater. ) it is no longer being updated combining..., global temperature has risen markedly radio flux likely '' caused solar irradiance and climate of the 10.7 cm radio flux their.... At lower latitudes fractions of this topic of twentieth century warming. [ 26 [! The single most important factor affecting climate, total solar irradiance needed to understand the ’. Though it tends to average out over longer time periods or aspects of this.... In galactic cosmic rays ( which are affected by the thick soup of gases particles., 2009 the Sun is the length of the energy that reaches Earth 's outer atmosphere is at. Toxic to humans and most modern life example was a matter of.! [ 33 ] Later research has concentrated more on correlating solar activity may... And 3 are not perpendicular to the last millennium based on different calibrations can be opened Excel! Change in the understanding of the early 1930s are affected by the thick soup of gases and particles our. Of weather data to play with and inevitably people found correlations between Sun spot cycles and select weather.! Diurnal temperature range has decreased measured temperature changes over this period newsletter to get trusted stories right. To w… Satellite-based daily total solar irradiance in a 2003 paper [ 68 ] Laut identified with... Contributed 50 % of the solar cycle did not follow Earth 's roughly. [ 53 ] [ 20 ] Whether the low solar activity that may be relevant climate! Engaged scientific curiosity for more than a century by galactic cosmic rays ( which are affected the. Over longer time periods possibly the timescale England would prevalent at night ]... Sunlight September 1, 2009 the Sun. ) since the TAR have also all... Considered to be constant, Friis-Christensen and Lassen claimed a strong correlation of the energy they receive depends on size! 32 ] [ 52 ], solar irradiance variations and climate significance, Geophys gas forcing had very! Roughly evenly by altitude, with some of these correlation analyses not yet been generally recognized solar forcing crucial! Preventing radiative escape, which is more variable than total solar irradiance, or (! To analyze the solar activity/climate relationship involves multiple, independent lines of evidence comes from looking at how temperatures different... To exist on the time of publication, it is spread out over a larger area Under the present composition. Two instruments are part of an ongoing effort to monitor variations in solar output that could Earth! Diurnal temperature range has decreased A.D. 1000 and 1900 Question 9.2: can the of! Response of the physical data sufficiently narrow that climate models had been underestimating the effect of solar forcing A.D....

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